Off-Topic: Going for the Gold (Part One)
Don’t be alarmed by the following ad—
I’m sure this year’s Oscars will be as dull as ever, though kudos to whomever compiled that montage and made it look as though Feb. 22 will feature the most exciting three four hours of all time. Jon Stewart‘s not even hosting. On the other hand, Hugh Jackman may actually sing, which might make things worthwhile. Not to mention the fact that he’s chock full of adamantium. But anyway, now that I’ve seen most of the worthy (and not-so-worthy) Academy Award nominees, I figured it was time for my Oscars predictions post. What does this have to do with foreign steamy romance? Um, nothing. However, this is a film blog and I’m a critic—did you really think I could restrain myself?
Best Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire
Will win: Slumdog Millionaire
Should win: Slumdog Millionaire
The only one of these films I didn’t really like is The Reader, and I’m not alone in my distaste. (You can read my thoughts on the movie’s meh-ness here.) But even if The Dark Knight had squeezed its way into the category, I’d still be gunning for frontrunner Slumdog Millionaire. Loved Frost/Nixon, really liked Milk and Benjamin Button. At the end of the day, Slumdog is simply the most impressive achievement.
Best Director
Danny Boyle (Slumdog Millionaire)
Stephen Daldry (The Reader)
David Fincher (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button)
Ron Howard (Frost/Nixon)
Gus Van Sant (Milk)
Will win: Danny Boyle
Should win: Danny Boyle
Yes, I have a Boyle bias. Last year I got to interview him for the Bay Guardian, and he was several kinds of awesome. That having been said, I think, objectively, he deserves this. Some are predicting a Fincher win, which makes sense given how many freakin’ noms Benjamin Button got. However, I’d say it’s Fincher’s overindulgence that prevented his film from being the classic it could have been. Exercise some restraint, man!
Best Actor
Richard Jenkins (The Visitor)
Frank Langella (Frost/Nixon)
Sean Penn (Milk)
Brad Pitt (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button)
Mickey Rourke (The Wrestler)
Will win: Sean Penn
Should win: Mickey Rourke
Pitt gets a shrug from me, but the other four nominees in this category gave tremendous performances. I’d honestly be fine with any of them winning—if, you know, Jenkins and Langella actually had a chance. We’re left with the two obvious picks, and I do think Penn will get it, with no hard feelings for me. But what can I say? Rourke was even better.
Best Actress
Anne Hathaway (Rachel Getting Married)
Angelina Jolie (Changeling)
Melissa Leo (Frozen River)
Meryl Streep (Doubt)
Kate Winslet (The Reader)
Will win: Anne Hathaway
Should win: Anne Hathaway
Look, I’ve got to predict an upset somewhere, and this is as good a place as any. But I don’t think it’s all that unlikely. Yes, Winslet deserves an award, but not for The Reader, and while Streep was strong in Doubt, her performance doesn’t rank among her best. It’s nice that Leo was nominated, and I shrug at Jolie the way I shrugged at her husband. We’re left with Hathaway, who nailed a wonderfully complex and fascinating character. She’s the best of the bunch, and I would not be surprised if she nabbed it from the frontrunners.
Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin (Milk)
Robert Downey, Jr. (Tropic Thunder)
Philip Seymour Hoffman (Doubt)
Heath Ledger (The Dark Knight)
Michael Shannon (Revolutionary Road)
Will win: Heath Ledger
Should win: Josh Brolin
Yes, duh. Sympathy vote and all that. I don’t mean to sound callous; I was a big Heath Ledger fan, and I think he would have been nominated regardless of his death. I don’t think he would have won, though. With the exception of Michael Shannon, I loved all of these performances, and I struggled between picking Josh Brolin and Philip Seymour Hoffman. Brolin gets it for also shining in W., an otherwise mediocre movie. (And for being a total hunk in The Goonies, way back when.)
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams (Doubt)
Penélope Cruz (Vicky Christina Barcelona)
Viola Davis (Doubt)
Taraji P. Henson (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button)
Marisa Tomei (The Wrestler)
Will win: Penélope Cruz
Should win: Penélope Cruz
More wonderful performances. I’m iffy about Henson, if only because I feel like the plot and structure of Benjamin Button overshadowed the actors. Other than that, this is a tough call. If Davis and Adams cancel each other out, we’re left with Tomei and Cruz. I love them both dearly, but The Wrestler is all about Rourke, whereas Cruz—along with Javier Bardem—made Vicky Christina Barcelona great.
Stay tuned for my picks for Screenplay (Adapted and Original), Foreign Language Film, Documentary Feature … and a bunch of other awards you probably don’t care about.
This entry was posted on February 12, 2009 at 12:31 pm and is filed under Off-Topic with tags academy awards, angelina jolie, anne hathaway, brad pitt, frank langella, frost/nixon, kate winslet, melissa leo, meryl streep, milk, richard jenkins, sean penn, slumdog millionaire, the curious case of benjamin button, the reader. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
Foreign Steamy Romance 
February 12, 2009 at 11:25 pm
i want mickey rourke to win too. actually though i want A TIE. that would be amazing. they did it forty years ago. they can do it again.
February 17, 2009 at 2:15 pm
Ok, I have to strongly disagree with a few of these. Danny Boyle? Are you kidding me? No way. Doesn’t matter how cool he is, and I’m sure he’s awesome. Doesn’t matter that he keeps genre-hopping and succeeding. I think Van Sant has so much more of a track record. I also feel like he’s taken so many more risks than any of the people on that list, and that stands to be rewarded.
I do agree with your wishful thinking on Brolin. He’s one of my favorites, and I’m happy to see him get so much exposure. Also, I kinda want Downey to win, because that was perfect and he deserves it.
As far as Best Actor, in my mind that list shouldn’t even include Pitt. I would have liked to have him nominated for a supporting actor in Burn After Reading. I think Penn edges out Rourke.
February 17, 2009 at 2:46 pm
As I said, my Boyle bias is showing, but I do maintain that he’s more deserving. 28 Days Later, Sunshine, and Trainspotting weren’t just cool—they were really very good. Van Sant has had an interesting career, but I don’t think his track record is actually all that impressive. Psycho? Elephant? Last Days? I think credit for Milk‘s success goes to Sean Penn and a wonderful supporting cast, not to Van Sant.
It would be nice to see Brolin get an Oscar, but it’s almost certain we’ll have to wait. Here’s hoping he continues to pick excellent projects. Same goes for Downey, Jr.
And yeah, I don’t get why Pitt is a contender. Unlike most of the critics I know, I actually really liked Benjamin Button, but I felt like the character (and thus, the performance) was more of a cipher. Ah, well. I’m pretty sure the Academy will see it the same way.
February 20, 2009 at 3:59 am
Ok, I agree with some parts of your argument, namely Psycho and Last Days (which I haven’t seen but looks bad), but Sunshine was ruined by whatever that was at the end. I thought Elephant was one of Van Sant’s better films though. Sure, it was slow and took forever, but to me that was the point.
Yes, 28 Days and Trainspotting were amazing.
I don’t mind the bias; I think it makes for great discussions. And I’ve yet to see Slumdog Millionaire, which could change my mind. In fact, I’m going to download it now.
February 22, 2009 at 12:01 am
Edit to my earlier arguments: I just saw Slumdog Millionaire, and it was slightly better than mediocre. The beginning was good, but at the end, I felt nearly nothing. I think that’s partly Dev Patel’s fault, and partly the screenwriter’s.